# Marchés prédictifs présidentielle 2027

> Suivez les probabilités implicites de victoire à la présidentielle française 2027 échangées sur Polymarket et leur évolution dans le temps.

Canonical: https://www.loupepolitique.fr/tableau-de-bord/marches-predictifs  
Last updated: 2026-11-03

Les prix reflètent les paris des intervenants du marché, pas une prévision électorale de La Loupe Politique.

## Probabilités implicites

| Personnalité | Probabilité | Variation 7 j | Variation 30 j | Volume (USD) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Marine Le Pen](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-marine-le-pen-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 40,3 % | -3,4 pt | -4,8 pt | 4 839 448 |
| [David Lisnard](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-david-lisnard-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 15,8 % | +2,1 pt | +6,6 pt | 6 436 027 |
| [Édouard Philippe](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-douard-philippe-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 11,5 % | -8 pt | -6 pt | 2 936 999 |
| [Jean-Luc Mélenchon](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-jean-luc-mlenchon-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 11,5 % | +1 pt | -1 pt | 2 955 272 |
| [Raphaël Glucksmann](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-raphal-glucksmann-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 2,9 % | -0,5 pt | +1,3 pt | 3 294 382 |
| [François Hollande](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-franois-hollande-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 2,1 % | -1,2 pt | -2,8 pt | 2 905 105 |
| [Dominique de Villepin](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-dominique-de-villepin-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 1,1 % | +0,4 pt | +0,8 pt | 3 160 660 |
| [Gabriel Attal](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-gabriel-attal-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 1,1 % | +0,2 pt | -1,2 pt | 3 505 005 |
| [Bruno Retailleau](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-bruno-retailleau-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,9 % | -0,3 pt | -0,6 pt | 3 610 607 |
| [Éric Zemmour](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-ric-zemmour-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,9 % | -0,2 pt | -0,1 pt | 3 383 452 |
| [Xavier Bertrand](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-xavier-bertrand-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,2 % | 0 pt | +0,1 pt | 6 800 957 |
| [Bernard Cazeneuve](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-bernard-cazeneuve-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | 0 pt | 0 pt | 2 502 697 |
| [Fabien Roussel](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-fabien-roussel-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | 0 pt | 0 pt | 4 274 176 |
| [François Asselineau](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-franois-asselineau-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | -0,1 pt | 0 pt | 6 293 749 |
| [François Ruffin](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-franois-ruffin-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | -0,1 pt | -0,1 pt | 4 903 671 |
| [Juan Branco](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-juan-branco-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | 0 pt | 0 pt | 2 380 620 |
| [Karim Bouamrane](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-karim-bouamrane-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | 0 pt | -0,1 pt | 1 316 978 |
| [Marine Tondelier](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-marine-tondelier-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | 0 pt | -0,1 pt | 4 627 547 |
| [Nicolas Dupont-Aignan](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election/will-nicolas-dupont-aignan-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election) | 0,1 % | 0 pt | 0 pt | 4 945 158 |

Source : [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election).

## Liens utiles

- [Méthodologie des marchés prédictifs](https://www.loupepolitique.fr/methodologie#marches-predictifs)